Phil Galfond's Poker Advice: Understanding Expected Value

Phil Galfond, a renowned poker player, discusses the concept of expected value (EV) in poker. EV is the amount of money you expect to win on average from a particular action. For example, if you bluff with a $1,000 bet in a $1,400 pot and expect the bluff to work half the time, your EV would be $200.

Galfond explains that players often misapply EV in practice. They analyze an action by comparing its EV to zero, assuming that if the EV is positive, they should take that action. However, this approach oversimplifies the situation. When deciding on a continuation bet, players should consider multiple factors, including the opponent's folding frequency, the likelihood of being raised, and the probability of winning at showdown.

Galfond advises considering various scenarios when making decisions. For instance, if you have Jx Tx on a Kx 8x 7x flop and your opponent checks, you should think about the many possible outcomes, such as your opponent folding, raising, or calling. Galfond also discusses the importance of considering the hidden EV of checking, which can lead to winning the pot or improving your hand.