SCOOP Series: Understanding Dispersion in Large Poker Tournaments

The SCOOP series is unique due to its buy-ins, deep structures, and large fields, with tournaments often gathering several thousand participants.

Dispersion in MTTs

The dispersion in MTTs depends on the size of the tournament, the expected ROI of the player, their playing style, and the structure of the prizes. The probability of a plus player entering the ITM zone is 1-3% higher than the percentage of players in the money zone. Each career of a player with a given ROI and tournament size was simulated 1,000 times.

For tournaments of all sizes, the downswing at a 40% ROI is on average half as much as at a 20% ROI. The chance of playing a distance in the minus increases from 5.9% with 1,000 players in the tournament to 29% with 10,000 players. At a 10% ROI, a bankroll of 500 buy-ins will not be enough to avoid bankruptcy and eventually reach the expected value with a probability of 60%. For players with a ROI of 20-25%, the recommended bankroll management for AFS=2000 is 500 buy-ins, with a bankruptcy probability of no more than 5%.