Fold Equity Calculator
Enter the pot, your bet, your equity when called and how often you expect a fold. The calculator shows the EV of the bet and the fold frequency you need to break even.
Everything in the middle before you bet.
The amount you put in.
Your chance to win the hand if you are called. A flush draw on the flop is about 35%, a pure bluff is 0.
Your estimate of how often the bet takes the pot.
Result
- EV of the bet
- +47.50
- EV when called
- +12.50
- Folds needed to break even
- None
At this fold frequency the bet earns money on average.
With this equity the bet is profitable even if the opponent always calls.
EV by fold frequency
- 0% folds: +12.50
- 25% folds: +34.38
- 40% folds: +47.50
- 50% folds: +56.25
Assumes no further bets after a call. Real EV also depends on later streets and on how well your fold estimate matches the opponent.
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How fold equity works
A bet can win in two ways: the opponent folds and you take the pot, or the opponent calls and you win at showdown. Fold equity is the extra value the first way adds. If you bet B into a pot P and you win a share E of the time when called, the average result is f × P + (1 − f) × (E × (P + B) − (1 − E) × B), where f is the fold chance.
A pure bluff has E = 0, so it must work at least B ÷ (P + B) of the time to break even. A semi-bluff has a draw behind it. The equity E pays part of the cost of a call, so the folds needed fall, and with a strong enough draw the bet is profitable even if the opponent never folds.
The calculator also shows the EV at four fold frequencies so you can see how sensitive the play is to your read. If a small change in your estimate flips the sign, the bet is close and depends on the opponent.
Worked example
You hold the nut flush draw on the flop (about 35% equity). The pot is $100 and you bet $75. If called, the EV of that call is 0.35 × $175 − 0.65 × $75 = +$12.50, so the semi-bluff makes money even with no folds.
If the opponent folds 40% of the time, the EV is 0.40 × $100 + 0.60 × $12.50 = +$47.50. A pure bluff of the same size needs 75 ÷ 175 ≈ 43% folds just to break even.
Questions and answers
What is fold equity in poker?
The extra value a bet gains from the chance that your opponent folds. It is the share of the pot you win without showing down.
How often must a bluff work?
A pure bluff needs a fold frequency of at least bet ÷ (pot + bet). A $75 bet into $100 needs about 43%.
Why is a semi-bluff better than a bluff?
A semi-bluff can also win when called, because the draw may hit. That equity lowers the folds you need, and with a strong draw the bet can be profitable at 0% folds.
Where does the fold percentage come from?
It is your estimate based on the opponent's range, the board and their tendencies. The calculator cannot know it, so test a few values and see how the EV changes.
Related guides
The calculator is an educational tool, it does not predict results and is not financial advice. Play only with money you can afford to lose: responsible gambling.