Run It Once Poker: Delays and the Planning Fallacy

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias related to excessive optimism and underestimating the time required to complete a task. The term was proposed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. This fallacy affects only the forecasts regarding one's own tasks; external observers tend to overestimate the time required to complete a task. In 2003, Lovallo and Kahneman proposed expanding the definition of the planning fallacy to include underestimating not only time but also costs and risks of future actions. According to the expanded definition, planning fallacies lead not only to overconsumption of time but also to excessive costs and failure to achieve planned benefits.

The summer of 2018 ended, and the Run It Once poker room still has not launched. Phil Galfond has not commented on the latest delay and has not published the long-awaited post about rake and rakeback in the new room. However, he posted an 18-minute video playing no-limit hold'em with beta testers and announced a large beta test on September 13, 2018, with a thousand volunteers.

Phil Galfond apologized for the long silence after his last post, citing active discussions with the community and the World Series of Poker. He mentioned that the community's active interaction and timely response to comments have always been a priority for Run It Once Poker. Phil Galfond announced a vote on several key questions, including the maximum number of tables a player can open. PokerStars announced a test limit on the number of tables for cash games in the Italian reservation, stopping at six tables. Phil Galfond agreed with PokerStars' reasoning for limiting the number of tables, though his reasons were slightly different. The main reason for limiting the number of tables is to increase the enjoyment of the game. Reducing the number of tables slightly decreases the benefit of using bots. The fewer tables a player can open, the less rake the organizer will receive.