Poker Downswings: The Harsh Truth About Variance and Expectations

Poker coach Tom Boшоff recently shared a graph on Twitter that highlights the harsh reality of downswings in poker. The graph shows a player who missed out on 70 buy-ins over 250,000 hands, illustrating the significant impact of variance on poker results. Boшоff explained that the lines on the graph, representing actual results and expected value, will not necessarily converge over time. This challenges the common belief that lines will eventually meet if a player plays long enough.

Boшоff mentioned that a player with a win rate of 6 BB/100 has about the same chance of experiencing a significant downswing as hitting a gutshot on the turn and making a straight on the river. This comparison underscores the unpredictability of poker outcomes and the role of luck in the game.

The article also discusses a player who experienced a downswing of 60 buy-ins over 12 months while playing $10/$20. This example highlights the emotional and financial toll that downswings can take on players, even those with good win rates. The article references a 2019 article by Patrick Howard about the challenges faced by regulars with good win rates, emphasizing the importance of understanding poker variance.