Odds, equity and theory
Variance in poker
Definition
The swings in results caused by luck, the gap between your expected result and what actually happens in the short term.
Poker has high variance: even a winning player can lose over thousands of hands. Variance is measured with the standard deviation, which for no-limit hold'em cash games is often around 80 to 100 big blinds per 100 hands.
Variance is the reason for bankroll management: enough buy-ins keep a normal downswing from putting you out of the game.
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Related terms
- DownswingA losing stretch, sometimes long, that is caused by variance rather than by playing badly.
- Risk of ruinThe probability of losing your entire bankroll given your win rate, variance and bankroll size.
- BB/100Your win rate in cash games: how many big blinds you win per 100 hands.
- Expected value (EV)The average amount you win or lose from a decision if you could repeat it many times.