Odds, equity and theory
Expected value (EV) in poker
Definition
The average amount you win or lose from a decision if you could repeat it many times.
EV is calculated by multiplying each possible result by its probability and adding them up. A decision with positive EV (+EV) makes money in the long run even if it loses this time.
Poker is about making the highest-EV decisions. Results in a single hand are mostly luck, which is why good decisions can lose and bad ones can win.
Example
Calling $50 to win $150 with 30% equity has EV = 0.30 × 150 − 0.70 × 50 = +$10.
Related terms
- EquityYour share of the pot based on how often your hand wins when all remaining cards are dealt.
- VarianceThe swings in results caused by luck, the gap between your expected result and what actually happens in the short term.
- Pot oddsThe ratio between the size of the pot and the cost of a call; it gives the equity you need for a call to break even.
- Fold equityThe extra value you gain from a bet or raise because your opponent may fold and give up the pot.