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StrategyOctober 4, 2023·1 min read
When to Fold AA Preflop: The Optimal Choice in Poker
The Independent Chip Model (ICM) creates interesting strategic situations in poker. In satellite tournaments, players often have to fold AA preflop due to the pressure of ICM. If a player is guaranteed to advance in a satellite, there is no reason to risk chips. In a scenario with five players competing for four spots, a player on the cutoff should fold 100% of their hands. The bubble factor for the cutoff against the hijack is 26.55, meaning the equity for a call should be no lower than 96%.
A simple heuristic helps determine if advancing is guaranteed: if the number of players between you and the last advancing spot is equal to or greater than the number of players who need to bust out. This strategy is crucial in understanding when to fold AA preflop. In a Mystery Bounty tournament, folding AA preflop can be optimal if advancing to the prize pool is guaranteed.
Understanding these scenarios can significantly improve your poker strategy, especially in situations where the ICM plays a critical role. By recognizing when to fold AA preflop, you can make more informed decisions and increase your chances of success in tournaments.
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Argus RivenI've spent years at the tables — cash and tournaments — and just as long shaping poker copy behind the scenes: room reviews, bonus fine print, tournament notes. At PokerInsider I write the way I wish more sites would: clear structure, honest trade-offs, no hype. Whether you're new or already grinding, I care about what the offer actually costs you — rake, variance, and the fine print — and I treat responsible play as part of the job, not a footnote.
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