NFL Files Brief Against Prediction Markets, Citing Lack of Regulation

The NFL has filed an amicus curiae brief supporting New Jersey in its petition against prediction market Kalshi. The brief argues that prediction markets lack the robust regulatory framework and consumer protections that state-regulated sportsbooks have. The NFL objects to certain bets available on prediction markets, including those centered around players' return from injury and what certain announcers will say during a game. The league believes these bets are easily manipulable and pose a risk to game integrity.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has released a notice of an interim final rule to more clearly define a “swap,” the technical term for the risks exchanged on a prediction market. The rule aims to clarify the legal landscape governing prediction markets, but it has sparked confusion among industry experts. The CFTC's chairman, Michael S. Selig, stated that “casino-style gambling products are not derivatives,” but this does not apply to sports event contracts, which are listed under casino-style gambling products.

In related news, political prediction markets have drawn scrutiny for potential insider trades. Katie Zacharia, the new press secretary, was considered a longshot candidate with a 1.1% chance of appointment. Despite this, she was appointed, and bets placed on Kalshi regarding her appointment are under investigation for possible insider trading. The bets, which were placed on Kalshi, are paying out around $10,000 total. Zacharia's work has not left a strong first impression, with betting markets giving her about a 62% chance of making it to the end of the year and an 18% chance of holding the position on Jan. 1, 2028.