Pot Odds Explained: When a Call Is Profitable

Pot odds compare the price of a call with the size of the pot you can win. If your chance of winning the hand (your equity) is bigger than the price the pot offers, calling is profitable in the long run. If it is smaller, folding is better, unless you expect to win extra money on later streets.

The short version

• Required equity = amount to call ÷ (pot + amount to call). The pot in this formula already includes your opponent's bet.
• Estimate your equity from your outs with the rule of 2 and 4.
• If your equity is higher than the required equity, call. If it is lower, fold (or raise as a bluff).

The formula

Let the pot before the bet be P and the opponent's bet be B. You must call B. After your call the pot is P + B + B. The share of that final pot you need to win to break even is:

Required equity = B ÷ (P + 2B)

The same number can be written as an odds ratio: the pot after the bet (P + B) compared with the call (B). Half-pot bet: 1.5 to 0.5, which is 3 to 1 and equals 25%.

Required equity by bet size

The opponent bets into the pot P. You need this much equity to call:

• Bet 1/4 of the pot: 16.7% (odds 5 to 1).
• Bet 1/2 of the pot: 25% (3 to 1).
• Bet 2/3 of the pot: 28.6% (about 2.5 to 1).
• Bet 3/4 of the pot: 30% (about 2.3 to 1).
• Bet the pot: 33.3% (2 to 1).
• Bet twice the pot: 40% (1.5 to 1).

Odds to percent: an odds ratio of X to 1 means you need 1 ÷ (X + 1). So 3 to 1 is 1 ÷ 4 = 25%, and 2 to 1 is 1 ÷ 3 = 33%.

A common mistake

Many beginners divide the call by the pot before their call. Example: the pot is $100, the opponent bets $50, and you must call $50. It is tempting to compute 50 ÷ 150 = 33%. That is wrong. After your call the final pot is $200 (100 + 50 + 50), so you need 50 ÷ 200 = 25%. Using 33% makes you fold hands that are profitable calls.

Worked example 1: a flush draw on the flop

You hold 9♠ 8♠ and the flop is K♠ 5♠ 2♦. The pot is $100 and the opponent bets $50.

• Outs: 9 spades. Equity from the flop to the river ≈ 9 × 4 = 36%.
• Required equity: 50 ÷ 200 = 25%.
• 36% > 25%, so calling is profitable.

Worked example 2: an open-ended straight draw on the turn

You hold 8♣ 7♣ and the board is 9♦ 6♥ 2♠ K♣ on the turn. The pot is $200 and the opponent bets $100.

• Outs: 8 (any 5 or 10). Equity with one card to come ≈ 8 × 2 = 16% (exact 17.4%).
• Required equity: 100 ÷ (200 + 100 + 100) = 100 ÷ 400 = 25%.
• 16–17% < 25%, so on pot odds alone this is a fold. A call only makes sense if you expect to win a lot more on the river when you hit (implied odds).

Implied odds and reverse implied odds

• Implied odds are extra money you expect to win on later streets when your draw comes in. They make some calls profitable even when pot odds say no. See implied odds.
• Reverse implied odds are the opposite: you may win a small pot when you are ahead but lose a big one when you are behind. They make marginal calls with weak hands worse than the pot odds suggest.

Pot odds and bluffing

Pot odds are the maths of the player who calls. The maths of the player who bets is the same formula seen from the other side: a bluff must succeed at least bet ÷ (bet + pot) of the time. See bluffing.

Practice routine

Learn the table above by heart: 1/4 → 17%, 1/2 → 25%, 3/4 → 30%, pot → 33%, 2× pot → 40%. At the table, when you face a bet with a draw, ask two questions: how many outs do I have, and is my equity above the number for this bet size?

Try the calculator

Enter the pot and the bet in the pot odds calculator to see the equity you need at once, and add your outs to compare it with your chance of hitting. To get your equity first, enter your hand, your opponent's hand and the board in the equity calculator.

What to read next

• Outs and equity: how to estimate your chance of winning.
• Implied odds: when future bets change the decision.
• Bluffing: the same maths for the bettor.
• How to play poker: the basics.
• Poker math basics: every number you need at the table in one place.