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NewsMay 29, 2025·1 min read
Real Madrid's Champions League Success: Magic or Math?
The article compares the success of Real Madrid in the Champions League to the concepts of EV and variance in poker.
Real Madrid has won 6 Champions League titles in the 13 seasons from 2009-10 to 2023-24.
The article explains that EV (Expected Value) is the average result one would get if a decision is repeated infinitely under identical conditions. The expected number of Champions League titles for Real Madrid over 15 seasons is approximately 1.83 titles, calculated using normalized probabilities derived from betting odds. The article discusses variance as the measure of how results deviate from the expected value, explaining the unpredictability in both football and poker.
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