The Gambler's Fallacy: Why Do People Believe in 'Due' Events?

The gambler's fallacy is a well-documented psychological phenomenon. It is the erroneous belief that because a series of events resolved in a certain way, the next random event would be different. This cognitive bias is also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, named after an incident in 1913 when a roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row, causing bettors to believe that a red outcome was 'due.'

Humans tend to be biased, and they tend to think that just because they like card games or sports, they somehow can have a 'sort of impact on it.' This is because human brains are hardwired to seek patterns, which is to say that it is in our nature as a species to try and discern events that happen in a specific order. This is why randomness confuses us; we default to our deeply-rooted understanding that 26 consecutive roulette spins should not happen, backing a different outcome instead.

Many young people today, about 40% of Gen Zers, think that sports betting is a form of investment, which is a clear indication of how prevalent the gambler's fallacy is in modern society.